-Nov
19:
SP500 = 1094.90. Buy signal given by QQQQ.
Buy weakness.
(DIA and IWM also say buy but are not in my basic 4 key data sets). We
never had much of any strength to sell as suggested by Monday data, but
no-w Q's and 2 of the 5 sentiment
data sets are confirming buy. Go with the signal.
-Nov 18:
SP500 = 1109.80. No signals.
-Nov 17:
SP500 = 1110.32. Quieter still. No strength to sell today. Data a
little more mixed. Perhaps will get thrust higher and more signals this
week.
-Nov 16:
SP500 = 1109.30. A usual quiet Monday, but nonetheless the SPY gave a 7
day
parameter sell signal. There are no other supportive indications to be
a seller. I consider this to be a distinct yellow flag or preliminary
sell signal, if not an actual
sell signal and would be willing to sell any
significant immediate strength. It's
been more than 70 S&P points since our most recent buy signal.
ALL BUY/SELL SIGNAL
DAYS ARE POSTED BELOW - PAGE DOWN
NOTE:
You can own
this indicator for only $85
delivered anywhere in the world. It
will entitle you to free updates and the opportunity to inquire direct
with your
questions.... too good a deal to pass up.
*For
signals, this service suggests
positioning in leveraged index ETFs, long or short. The symbols for the
long/short leveraged ETFs are: S&P500 = SSO / SDS, Nasdaq 100 = QLD
/ QID, Russell 2000 = UWM / TWM. More leveraged alternatives are to
trade the Nasdaq 100 and S&P500 futures contracts.
**NOTE: When
buying weakness/selling strength, use a defined method to do so. One I
often use is
to avg the day's high, low, close and subtract / add the range to
determine the next day's buy / sell point. THIS IS JUST ONE METHOD. The
possibilities are infinite. Plan your trades, THEN, trade your plan.
---It is
also essential to have an exit strategy and is especially important in
the
event of adversity. Base your stop on near term
volatility. Example: It can be useful to risk a maximum of the current
averge true
range of the instrument being traded.
---YOU MUST
HAVE AN EXIT STRATEGY
both for adversity and accepting profits.
***On
occassion, an initial volume surge from within a congestion pattern,
can mark the beginning of a move, as
as opposed to being a valid
climactic buy or sell signal that this indicator seeks out and
emphasizes. The
proper tactic would be to weight the merits of the current
circumstances. This is further discussed in the published materials.
ALL SIGNAL
DAYS SEP 2007 - INTO 2009:
ULTIMATE
TRADING
SIGNALS (Sept 7,
2007 - into 2009):
-Nov
19:
SP500 = 1094.90. Buy signal given by QQQQ.
Buy weakness.
(DIA and IWM also say buy but are not in my basic 4 key data sets). We
never had much of any strength to sell as suggested by Monday data, but
now Q's and 2
of the 5 sentiment data sets are confirming buy.
-Nov 16:
SP500 = 1109.30. ... willing to sell any
significant immediate strength. It's
been more than 70 S&P points since our most recent buy signal.
-Oct
30:
SP500 = 1036.19. ...the SPY, QQQQ, and
four out of five
sentiment indicators are confirming the BUY MODE even more so
than on Wednesday, so buy weakness, with
protection, as the buy mode
continues. ...continue to buy
weakness with stop protection.
-Oct
28:
SP500 = 1042.63. QQQQ has repeated buy signal
while NYSE and Nasdaq are signaling buy. BUY MODE confirmed. Buy
weakness. 3 of 5 sentiment indicators also confirming. To date,
the time and magnitude of pullback is same as last one. As always,
protect positions appropriately.
-Oct 27:
SP500 = 1063.41. SPY & QQQQ generating buy
signals. Time for traders to switch to the BUY MODE and buy weakness. Position long on further weakness and
protect appropriately.
-Oct
22:
SP500 = 1092.91. SPY data again confirming SELL
MODE. Sell strength, and protect sales appropriately. A
continued tone of testing exreme parameter boundaries persists without
resolution. Accumulation, distribution, or just a temporary tug of war? As always, take it a day at a
time.
-Oct 21:
SP500 = 1081.40. NYSE, Nasdaq, and SPY generated
signals confirming previous sell mode, though it is not typical
exhausion action. When any chart trades at new highs only to close
under the 10 DMA on the same day, it's often a strong indication
of a very real reversal. Prospects for lower markets
have increased at least for the time being.
-Oct 15:
SP500 = 1096.56. NYSE
data confirmed another 7day sell signal. Not much has changed. Indicator
in sell mode. Sell strength.
-Oct 14:
SP500 = 1092.02. No signals, though NYSE data
did register a 7 day sell
signal, much like a NYSE 7 day signal generated a buy on Sep 30.
Also, 4 of 5 of my sentiment data sets confirm a sale. One
should definitely be tuned-in
to selling strength soon, if not now.
-Oct 1:
SP500 = 1029.85. SPY generated signal at 15 day
closing
low. Buy weakness. Sentiment data sets are concuring.
-Sep 23:
SP500 = 1060.87. QQQQ sell signal. Data
confirms last Friday's sell signal. Today's opportunity
to sell strength was followed by a reversal. We'll take it one day at a
time.
-Sep
18:
SP500 = 1068.30 Options expiration is the underlying factor in today's
sell signal in NYSE and
Nasdaq data sets. The other volume based primary data sets
(those that gave a sell signal yesterday have not confirmed today. I have been generally ignoring
option expiration influenced signals. Market
could continue to stay firm with the positive data we continue to
observe. We in a cautious sell mode with some
sentiment data sets flipping back and forth almost daily. Additional new sales into
strength would be appropriate, but as always, not without stop
protection.
-Sep 17:
SP500 = 1065.49. Nice opportunity to sell strength early today. SPY & QQQQ confirming sell signal.
Sell strength.
-Sep 16:
SP500 = 1068.76. Sell strength. Sell signals
basis NYSE, Nasdaq, SPY, and clusters of confirming sentiment data.
-Sep 1:
SP500 = 998.04. The recent series of sell signals have been answered. 8
of my 9 data sets giving Buy Signals.
-Aug
28:
SP500 = 1028.93. Nasdaq has generated a sell
signal, sell strength.
-Aug
21:
SP500 = 1026.13. Sell signals in NYSE and Nasdaq
data sets ( 5 of 9 in
two days again). Sell strength.
-Aug
17:
SP500 = 979.73. Buy
signal generated from the SPY data set. Buy
weakness, but note that this could be early and may once again
signal
the beginning of a move downward as opposed to having climactic
characteristics.
Some Comments
from those who Purchased this Indicator:
Rather than me telling
you how useful this tool is, here is recent email testimony from some
of my customers who have
incorporated this indicator into their
trading:
"I'm loving this Ultimate (Stock Market)
Indicator Stan !!! Thanks a lot !" Adrian M.
My subscriber Jerry C. says: "I
trade the S&P and have several trading software systems that I have
paid dearly for but I have more confidence in your system because I
have watched it over the months and it works and is fairly priced. I
also appreciate your "to the point" comments of only a few words but
they speak volumes and I am very appreciative knowing where you stand
on current and future market direction."
A buyer named Carl says: "This (vendor) is a stock market wiz."
A
recent email note: "Stan,
I wanted to follow up regarding the Ultimate Stock Market Volume
Indicator I purchased ...
I thought I would pass along the Motorola chart for your observation. I
could not be more pleased implementing your routine ... I cannot help
but keep coming back to you and thanking you for selling me the
Ultimate Stock Market Indicator. It is the closest indicator to the
Holy Grail I have found.... -- B. Thompson, IL."
Additional
feedback from Steve in
Indiana: "Here is an original thinker."
More recent feedback from buyer Mr
Mckoan: "A great trading tool I will include in my
investment arsenal."
Regarding my
trading
approach, the late Bruce Babcock, founder of "Commodity
Traders Consumer Report" published:
"Obviously this guy can trade."
Now you can too!
The renowned Larry Williams wrote me a very
complimentary personal note after examining this material.
Tradestation
4/ 2000i / Supercharts code available free with purchase, but the
technique is so easy to use, that you
will not need it.
You will find this to
be the least expensive, easiest to use,
and best single trading tool you have ever found. Everyone who buys it
comes back for more!
-Aug 12:
SP500 = 1005.81. QQQQ's giving sell signal,
but keep in mind that we are at the top of a recent congestion. Not to
be
ignored, but taken with a grain of salt. We have been inundated with
"qualified" sell signals in recent weeks, though none measure up to
a climactic event. Sell strength
with appropriate stop protection.
-Aug 5:
SP500 = 1002.72. Sell signal basis NYSE data set.
Sell strength. More like a churning than a
running exhaustion
day, but a sell nonetheless.
-Aug 3:
SP500 = 1002.63. No signals. Sell
mode signaled Friday remains in
effect. Data fairly neutral.
-Jul
31:
SP500 = 987.48. Sell signal basis
NYSE data set. Sell strength.
-Jul 23:
SP500 = 976.29. Sell signals in NYSE, SPY,
Nasdaq data sets. Sell strength.
-Jul
15:
SP500 = 932.68. Sell signal in QQQQ and the
Nasdaq, along with a cluster of confirming short term sell data. Sell
strength. There is a chance
that this surge may be a
lift-off to higher prices, so trade with an appropriate plan and
protection and take it a day at a time.
-Jul 8:
SP500 = 879.56. Buy confirmed in Q's. A
cluster of oversold data is also supportive to buying weakness. NDX
(Q's) traded lower and
closed
higher today as did the DIA. Since there may be more to the
decline, it would be prudent to move stops up to protect any
positions bought on today's
lower prices.
-Jul 7:
SP500 = 881.03. Buy signal in QQQQ. Enter buy
mode, buy weakness. Market finally unwinding the spring rally.
Now at levels lower than all previous May-June sell signals. Remember
that this indicator is a TRADING tool, not a long term call on markets.
Manage risk accordingly.
-Jun
26:
SP500 = 918.90. Sell signal Nasdaq. Sell
strength. Balance of data is mixed.
-Jun 25:
SP500 = 920.26. SPY surge has given a sell signal,
but it's right in the middle of
current trading range, i.e. not likely signaling exhaustion
that we look for as trade set-ups.
-Jun
19:
SP500 = 921.23. NYSE & Nasdaq sell signals
-Jun 17:
SP500 = 910.71. Buy signal in Q's, most major
volume parameters, and data
sets. Buy weakness. Some sort of rally attempt in
progress, but may
be just short term
indication.
-Jun 11:
SP500 = 944.89. Sell signals from Nasdaq
and Q's. Sell
strength.
-Jun 10:
SP500 = 939.15. SPY and QQQQ appear to be confirming topping pattern /
sell mode.
-Jun 1:
SP500 = 942.87. Sell signal, from Nasdaq data.
Sell strength. Protect any sales made on
strength.
-May
29:
SP500 = 919.14. Sell signals. Sell Strength. Data sets negative.
-May
6:
SP500 = 919.53. Nasdaq and NYSE sell signals:
sell strength. Addendum: Was good for 50 pt trade.
-Apr 23:
SP500 = 851.92. QQQQ sell signal.
Continued indications that sell mode
is in effect.
-Apr 22:
SP500 = 843.55. Another SPY signal
near top of current range. Likely
confirming
sell mode. Market can still move either way short term.
-Apr
17:
SP500 = 869.60. Sell signals
basis NYSE, Nasdaq, but this is biased by
elevated option expiration volume. It may well be a good opportunity to
sell strength. To those who own the Indicator, the data did give an
original 7 day parameter sell
signal basis the SPY and QQQQ on
Thursday Apr 16 to sell strength
that materialized today. It's
possible that a new SPY sell
signal will still be forthcoming if the market continues climbing the
current wall of worry. It is also possible that at
least a short term top is in place. Caution advised.
-Apr
16: SP500 = 865.30. No version II signals (but a seven day
parameter sell in QQQQ and SPY)
-Apr 2:
SP500 = 834.38. SPY, QQQQ & Nasdaq sell
signals. Sell strength. Of
interest: While everyone seems to be turning bullish today, the entire
crowd was bearish at this indicator's buy signals on March 5 and 6
(SP500=
682). Sell strength and take it one day at a time.
-Mar
18: SP500 = 794.35. Primary data set sell
signals in Nasdaq
and IWM (sell strength). Some
secondary data sets signaling sell also. Neither SPY nor NYSE key data sets
are
registering a sell signal as yet.
-Mar
6: SP500 = 683.38. Another SPY buy signal. No major
capitulation
-Mar 5:
SP500 = 682.55. SPY buy signal.
Other modest buy indications.
-Mar 3:
SP500 = 696.33. No signals. Data sets
neutral. Turning Point offered a buy entry, and the oversold 7 Day
Exhaustion pattern confirms a buy entry
for tomorrow.
-Mar 2: SP500 = 700.82. No new signals. Plenty of
weakness to buy, but no panic. Buy mode continues in effect. Awaiting
confirmations or
additional
signals. Be in tune to buy weakness where/when appropriate with
measured risk. Many indexes have Turning
Point set ups (buy patterns).
Data
sets more positive today.
-Feb
27: SP500 = 735.09. Buy signal on
primary data set. Not much confirmation across the data sets,
but
likely an
interesting juncture to buy weakness.
Prevailing mood is certainly negative enough to generate a rally of
significance. As always, plan your trades appropriately. (read
footnotes)
-Feb 20:
SP500 =
769.50. Buy signal (buy weakness) on
primary data set, BUT...Most data sets...not extreme. (less
so, but still a dubious signal)
-Feb
10:
SP500 = 827.16. Market showing significant exhaustion characteristics
in many data sets. Read data as a questionable buy
signal...(dubious signal)
-Jan
20:
SP500 = 805.22. Primary data set buy signal. Buy
weakness. If stopped out of
positions bought into weakness on Jan 15 (quite likely), re-enter or
add on further
weakness.
Chart below was posted using
mid-day data bar for Jan 15.
-Jan 14:
SP500 = 842.62. The facts today are that the market has broken
congestion to the
downside, the primay indicators and three subsets are confirming a
potential buy opportunity. Buy weakness
while protecting any positions in the event of further adversity. As
always, use a disciplined plan appropriate to your personal style.**
-Jan
6, 2009:
SP500 = 934.70.
Sell signals across the primary data
sets. Sell strength (last signal
was a
buy confirmed by the close of Nov 20 at 752.44).
2009
ABOVE...2008
BELOW:
-Dec 8:
SP500 = 909.70.
No
signals basis primary
indicator(s). Using
original shorter time period
parameters (7 day) gives a sell signal
as of today's close (but strength was not available to sell on
Dec
9).
-Nov
20:
SP500 = 752.44.
Buy signals on key data sets. Enter buy mode. Buy
weakness.**
-Nov
13:
SP500 =
911.29. We'll
revert back to the sell mode and sell strength.
-Nov 12:
SP500 = 852.30.
A couple of short term data set extremes lend a bit of credence to
rally possibility
-Nov 3:
SP500 = 966.30.
No signals, though short term, market is looking
more like a sale than
a buy.
-Oct
30:
SP500 = 954.09.
No signals. Continued rotational action. Another minor
short term sell
indication
-Oct
24:
SP500 = 876.77.
No new signals. Mixed data with small clusters of buy data today
-Oct
20:
SP500 = 985.40.
No new signals. Clusters of sell
data today.
-Oct
10:
SP500 = 899.22.
Buy signals look pretty dynamic again as
SPY put buyers are in abundance, and volume continues to be
climactic. Buy weakness.**
-Oct 8:
SP500 = 984.94.
Buy signals prevail again. Buy weakness**
-Oct 6:
SP500 =
1056.89. Buy signals confirmed across the
spectrum. Buy weakness.
-Oct
3:
SP500 =
1099.23. More recently I have been using SPY data to generate signals.
Today a buy signal was generated. Buy weakness (plan your trade then
trade your plan).
-Sep
19:
SP500 =
1255.08. Mixed signals. Friday volume expansion is either a lift off or
we have cause (signals) to
become sellers again. Opt for the latter.
Sell strength.
-Sep
17:
SP500 =
1156.39. Most data sets are confirming a buy mode. Trade appropriately.
Our tradeout/stop protection approaches
pay dividends, i.e. they limit your exposure, protect profits and
preserve your equity. Continue to buy weakness
while limiting risk**
(see footnotes below). Conditions are at extreme levels that usually
are a precursor to significant rallies. The question remains, when?
-Sep
15:
SP500 =
1192.70. Primary indicator, among others, signal buy. Buy mode returns (there were several buys in
June/July with mixed -mostly sell- signals on the Aug/Sep
rally)). Buy weakness**, protect
all positions
appropriately.
-Sep 9:
SP500 =
1224.51. Don't look now, but the vast majority of data has again
flipped and indicates to buy
weakness** (SPY and Nasdaq volume
data in particular).
-Sep 8:
SP500 =
1267.79. Mixed data, mixed markets. The "screaming buy" of Thursday
data has been offset with a sell signal
in the S&P. Market again
congested. Not easy markets to read.
-Sep 4:
SP500 =
1236.83. Congestion has obviously been resolved to the downside. Not
surprisingly, volume and sentiment parameters all
scream buy.
-Jul 17:
SP500 = 1260.32. Sell signal generated by
primary indicator. I am surprised, but will go with it. Sell strength (see footnotes).
-Jul 15:
SP500 = 1214.91. Buy signals across the board.
Buy weakness.
Yes, things look ugly, but it's always best to plan your trades and
then trade your plan. Always protect current and any new
positions.
-Jul
11:
SP500 = 1239.49. Buy signals generated from SPY,
QQQQ,
my "VIX Trader" and the large expansion in SPY put volume.
Ironically
the large selling or capitulation has not come to fruition and this
market continues to hold high risk. Some
measured buy levels were reached today (see footnotes). Protect those positions while
awaiting further indications.
-Jul
10:
SP500 = 1253.39. SPY volume generated a buy
signal.
P/C ratios are suggesting that the opportunity is in the area of buying
weakness as well. Lows are rarely this stealthy and this orderly. There
could yet be some large selling, but data still suggest buying weakness in a defined gameplan (see footnotes
above).
-Jul
1:
SP500 = 1284.91. Buy signal generated by all
index ETF's. The weakness that could have been bought earlier
today was followed by a volume reversal. This likely calls for positive
action going forward.
As always, protect positions in the event follow through to upside does
not come to fruition. In essence, S&P rallied off of previous
support just above 1260.
-Jun
27:
SP500 = 1278.38. Nasdaq and NYSE again generated buy
signals. We'll return to buying only weakness
with volatility stop protection.**
-Jun
20:
SP500 = 1317.93. Nasdaq and NYSE generated buy
signals, in part due to option expiration. Buy weakness. The IWM data shows the Russell
2000
has also generated a buy signal (it's now down over
5%
from the sell indication on June 5). In the larger perspective,
expect
a probable oversold bounce, though not likely a bottom. As always,
protect all
positions appropriately. The current decline has been very orderly
without a hint of panic, indicating we'll likely see lower (perhaps
MUCH lower?) prices at some point in the current down cycle.
-Jun 19:
SP500 = 1342.83. Sell signal in Nasdaq (has
rallied about 60 points or more than 3% since June 12 NDX buy signal).
Other data mixed and unresolved.
-Jun 12:
SP500 = 1339.87. Buy signal in Nasdaq (NDX)
indicates possibility of an
imminent
short term bounce.
-Jun
6:
SP500 = 1360.68.
Buy signal. Buy weakness.
-Jun 5:
SP500 = 1404.05. No signals of significance. Russell
2000 indicating
sell as speculative surge returns. As always, protect any / all
positions appropriately.
-Jun
3:
SP500 = 1377.65. SPY's gave a buy signal
which was not
confirmed elsewhere. Getting closer to a broader
based signal. Time will tell.-May
23:
SP500 = 1375.93. No signals. Comments from May 21 appear to be affirmed
by subsequent action, i.e. sell mode remains in
effect.
-May
23:
SP500 = 1375.93. No signals. Comments from May 21 appear to be affirmed
by subsequent action, i.e. Sell
mode remains in effect.
-May
21:
SP500 = 1390.71. Qualified buy signal. Buy
weakness.
NOTE: There are sometimes days that qualify as a signal, but are, in
fact, a volume expansion that comes at the beginning of a move rather
than being climactic in nature. That possibility exists basis today's
data. Play it accordingly.
-May
16:
SP500 = 1425.35.
Sell signal on primary indicator. Sell strength.
-May 1:
SP500 = 1409.34. Nasdaq indicating sell along with some other
overbought indications in my database. It remains to be seen what
type of a bottom (minor, intermediate, major) has been experienced over
the past few weeks. Await primary parameter trading signal. Indicator bias
today continues to indicate that one should sell strength.
-Apr 24:
SP500 = 1388.82. Sell strength.
Nasdaq, QQQQ,
and SPY data indicating another sell
signal.
-Apr
18:
SP500 = 1390.33. Sell signals
from general NYSE and Nasdaq volume
parameters as well as P/C ratio. Elect to sell into strength.
-Mar 17: SP500 =
1276.60. Buy signal
from primary indicator. Buy weakness in
the
indexes. Protect all positions appropriately.
-Mar 4: SP500 =
1326.75. Buy signal confirmed,
buy weakness. Not
capitulation, but set up for possible rally.
-Feb
29: SP500 = 1330.63.
Not capitulation, but a Buy Signal. Buy
weakness.
-Feb
26: SP500 = 1381.29.
By the slimmest of margins, the primary indicator has generated a Sell Signal. Not broadly
confirmed elsewhere, but for the record, we'll elect to Sell
Strength.
-Jan
22: SP500
= 1310.50. Indicator remains in a buy mode
(note subsequent rally to 1396 into Feb 1)
-Jan
18: SP500
= 1325.19. Buy signal.
-Jan
17: SP500
= 1333.25. Buy signal, buy weakness.
-Jan
16: SP500
= 1373.20. Buy signal, buy weakness.
-Jan
8: SP500 =
1390.19. Buy weakness.
-Jan
4, 2008: SP500 =
1411.63. Buy signal basis my original 7 day parameter for this
indicator. The 10 day confirmation is not present, though other data
sets are indicating a buy. Buy weakness /
protect any purchases.
2008 ABOVE, 2007 BELOW:
-Dec
21: SP500 =
1484.46. Sell signal, sell strength
-Nov
8: SP500 = 1474.44. Buy signal. Buy
weakness. Protection of all positions. It's
essential to any
trading
plan.
-Oct
19: SP500
=
1500.63. Buy signal using the NYSE parameter. Buy
weakness. (nice interim tradable rally ensued to above 1550)
-Oct 11: SP500
=
1554.41. Not an uptick,
but volume expansion gave a sell signal. Sell strength.
-Sep 21:
SP500
= 1525.75. Sell signal confirmed. Sell strength.
-Sep 19: SP500
= 1529.03. Had nice opportunity to sell strength. Another sell signal today,
sell strength.
-Sep 18: SP500
= 1519.78. Sell signal, sell strength.
-Sep 7: SP500
= 1453.55. Sharp down day. Buy signal, buy weakness.
Some Comments
from those who Purchased this Indicator:
Rather than me telling
you how useful this tool is, here is recent email testimony from some
of my customers who have
incorporated this indicator into their
trading:
"I'm loving this Ultimate (Stock Market)
Indicator Stan !!! Thanks a lot !" Adrian M.
My subscriber Jerry C. says: "I
trade the S&P and have several trading software systems that I have
paid dearly for but I have more confidence in your system because I
have watched it over the months and it works and is fairly priced. I
also appreciate your "to the point" comments of only a few words but
they speak volumes and I am very appreciative knowing where you stand
on current and future market direction."
A buyer named Carl says: "This (vendor) is a stock market wiz."
A recent email note: "Stan,
I wanted to follow up regarding the Ultimate Stock Market Volume
Indicator I purchased ...
I thought I would pass along the Motorola chart for your observation. I
could not be more pleased implementing your routine ... I cannot help
but keep coming back to you and thanking you for selling me the
Ultimate Stock Market Indicator. It is the closest indicator to the
Holy Grail I have found.... -- B. Thompson, IL."
Additional feedback from Steve in
Indiana: "Here is an original thinker."
More recent feedback from buyer Mr
Mckoan: "A great trading tool I will include in my
investment arsenal."
Regarding my
trading
approach, the late Bruce Babcock, founder of "Commodity
Traders Consumer Report" published:
"Obviously this guy can trade."
Now you can too!
The renowned Larry Williams wrote me a very
complimentary personal note after examining this material.
Tradestation
4/ 2000i / Supercharts code available free with purchase, but the
technique is so easy to use, that you
will not need it.
You will find this to
be the least expensive, easiest to use,
and best single trading tool you have ever found. Everyone who buys it
comes back for more!
THE
ULTIMATE STOCK MARKET
INDICATOR FOR
INDEX TRADERS
Daily Comments and Signals
and commentary from April
2, 2004 - March 11, 2005
While all references
below and
data pertain to the "version 2" of this indicator, as of October 2005,
I have added signals generated by a statistical measure (version 3)
that produces
more within trend signals. Those signals are described in the paper
that is available for sale, as
well as being carried free in the Marketline Daily Advisory
Letter. It is a great addition to the existing indicator. April-Sept 2005 signals
are shown on the image below:
2005 DATA BELOW:
-Mar
11 SPX 1200.09: No signals.
-Mar
10 SPX 1209.25: No signals.
-Mar
9 SPX 1207.01: No signals. Frustrating in that every time the market
gets to a point
where a sell signal seems immanent, it just gently pulls back down
without generating a signal. Patience required. Unknown when or what
kind of signal will be forthcoming.
-Mar
8 SPX 1219.43: No signals, though market appears to have backed off of
a technical sell zone, it is giving no clues as to signaling a turning
point or a blow off.
-Mar
7 SPX 1225.31: No signals. At this point it appears we are waiting for
the right opportunity to sell strength.
-Mar
4 SPX 1222.12: No signals. The beat goes on until we "max out" on the
greed/short covering combo. Volume will be the clue.
-Mar
3 SPX 1210.47: No signals as market churns in place.
-Mar
2 SPX 1210.08: No signals in the face of a volatile day.
-Mar
1 SPX 1210.41: No signals. The preferred signal would be to get a sell
on strength, rather than weakness as yesterday. Wait another day to see
what transpires. I am still being alert to being a potential seller.
-Feb
28 SPX 1203.60: Volume signal in NYSE and Nasdaq with option stat's
confirming sell as a contrarian indicator. I like to see climax type
action, but Monday seemed more like a volume reversal than anything
else, i.e. an early rally failed badly. I am uncertain we have seen the
highs thought the evidence keeps saying the sell side should be
favored. I'd be looking to sell strength.
One down day does not
generate a buy signal.
-Feb
25 SPX 1211.37: No signals. The Fed 22 buy spawned a rally, but gave no weakness to
take long positions. Awaiting next signal.
-Feb
24 SPX 1200.20: No signals. Market now clearly in the middle of a
congestion (sideways pattern), which by definition, can not generate a
signal.
-Feb
23 SPX 1190.80: No weakness to buy on the 23rd. No signals indicated.
Back in congestion looking for another signal.
-Feb
22 SPX 1184.16: Primary indicator has given a buy
signal along with
some minor technical confirmations. Buy weakness. SPX has closed at
lowest level in 14 trading days (the NDX in 16 days).
-Feb 21 Market Holiday
-Feb
18 SPX 1201.59: No signals.
-Feb
17 SPX 1200.75: No signals.
-Feb
16 SPX 1210.34: No signals. Due for a breather, but index systems still
on the long side.
-Feb
15 SPX 1210.12: No signals, since Jan 20 buy signal. Be patient.
-Feb
14 SPX 1206.14: No signals...getting to sound like a broken record, but
market continues to work higher and it appears to need more time.
-Feb
11 SPX 1205.30: No signals in primary market/indicator yet. Nasdaq
signal from yesterday certainly followed through as a
buy signal should. The NDX cash index trade up 36.86 from it's low tick
today...a nice gain. An anomaly is that the volume once again expanded
as the NDX moved nearly back to the high of the last 3 1/2 weeks. Sort
of a mirror image sell from yesterday's buy. We'll continue to look for
a primary market signal to hang our hat on.
-Feb 10 SPX 1197.01: No primary market
signal. Nasdaq signaled but by
a
miniscule increment while at the bottom of a nine day range which would
read more like a buy signal. Again market continues to confirm
that buy
signal (from Jan 20) was a good one and that more upside in the SPX
would not be out
of the question.
-Feb 9 SPX 1191.99: No signals in spite of
selloff.
-Feb
8 SPX 1202.30: No signals.
-Feb
7 SPX 1201.72: No signals.
-Feb
4 SPX 1203.03: No signals.
-Feb
3 SPX 1189.89: No signals. Can't say how this is going to be resolved,
but let's hope it's clear and resounding.
-Feb
2 SPX 1193.19: No signals.
-Feb
1 SPX 1189.41: No signals. That buy of Jan 20 may carry this market for
a while yet. It's dynamic, speculative, but without a volume blowoff.
Patience....we may end up slipping back to the sell side very soon.
-Jan
31 SPX 1181.27: No signals.
-Jan
28 SPX 1171.36: No signals.
-Jan
27 SPX 1174.85: No signals.
-Jan
26 SPX 1174.07: No signals. Tighten up stops on any longs.
-Jan
25 SPX 1168.41: No signals. Modest up move could be answer to weak buy
signal given Jan 20. Await definitive signals.
-Jan
24 SPX 1163.75: No signals. Stay cautions. If you bought anything,
don't become a buy and hold investor, protect positions.
-Jan
21 SPX 1167.87: Had modest weakness late, but no significant selling
pressure. Protect any longs. No new signals. Refer to comments from the
20th.
-Jan
20 SPX 1175.41: Primary market buy signal. Could be early or one of a
series. Not an extreme condition or signal. Buy weakness.
-Jan
19 SPX 1184.63: No signals. Looking lower.
-Jan
18 SPX 1195.98: No signals. Wait it out.
-Jan 17 ---Market Holiday
-Jan
14 SPX 1184.52: No signals. Pre-holiday trading usually precludes
signals due to light volume.
-Jan 13 SPX
1177.45: No signals. The Dec
16
sell signal still looks good after the confirming high volume
off the
top starting the first of this year.
-Jan 12 SPX 1187.70: No signals.
-Jan 11 SPX 1182.99: No signals yet as market
inches back down that proverbial wall of worry.
-Jan 10 SPX 1190.25: No signals. Waiting for
next signal.
-Jan 7 SPX 1186.19: No signals.
-Jan 6 SPX 1187.89: No signals. Hard to tell
if a possible rally will have legs here, but the sentiment indictors
are still too optimistic to convince me that we'll make much upside
progress on a rally.
-Jan 5 SPX 1183.74: No signals today. I would
opt to let this volume bulge to the downside play into the NEXT signal.
For reasons that the decline started down days with volume from a high
level, it acts like the start of a move, not the end of one. Bias
is
downside, volatility likely to pick up furher.We really need an
exhaustion of downside pressure to call a turn. This is likely the
start of an intermediate move. It may take a while to complete this
leg, though very short term, the drop is extended a bit. That does not
rule out an extreme conclusion (exhaustion) that may take a
considerable time in coming. The SPX did not make it to 1180. Still
best to be flat or short at this juncture, even though a bounce is due.
Overall, it certainly seems too soon to buy. I doubt this wave of
selling is over, but as always, take it a day at a time.
-Jan 4 SPX 1188.05: Sharp selloff of the last
two days have put the volume parameter in a buy mode. As a short term
strategy, buy weakness, but pick
your spots carefullly (about 8 SPX
points lower might be a good area) and protect positions.
-Jan 3 SPX 1202.08: No primary signal. Nasdaq
DIA, and SPY gave secondary 10 day volume peaks off of a rally high.
This indicator is tuned to look for exhaustion which the reversal may
represent. Admittedly the DIA volume expansion comes off of
several
soft days of decline and could set up a bounce. We'll stay with our sell signal from Dec 16 until
something clearly defines the technicals. Until then, we could continue
to see choppy action pending a countermove or confirming signal.
2004 DATA BELOW:
-Dec 31 SPX 1211.92: No
signals.
-Dec 30 SPX 1213.55: No signals, none likely
tomorrow either in pre-holiday session.
-Dec 29 SPX
1213.45: No signals. Waiting for
next tradable signal which will likely follow the holiday doldrums.
-Dec 28 SPX 1213.54: No signals as volume
remains low and speculation high.
-Dec 27: SPX 1204.92: No signals. There has
been minimal
upside progress since sell signal given Dec 16.
-Dec 24: Christmas Holiday
-Dec 23 SPX 1210.13: No signals. Quiet
pre-holiday trading day.
-Dec 22 SPX 1209.57: Thus far sales made on
Dec 17 only resulted in a two day pullback. Protect positions while
waiting for next trading signal. None yet as
pre-holiday volume
contracts.
-Dec 21 SPX 1205.45: No signals, no volume
spikes, just a continuation of diminished volume upside. Await next
signal, protect previous sales.
-Dec 20 SPX 1194.65: No signals. Nothing
clear
cut as market pulls back modestly from recent gains and sell signal of
Dec 16. Protect sales.
-Dec 17 SPX 1194.22: Had a nice bit of early
strength to sell, but only in ND. Protect any sales. Sell signal right
on the money for the moment.
-Dec 16 SPX 1203.21: Sell signal. Highest
NYSE vol since Oct 27. Sell strength.
-Dec 15 SPX 1205.72: No signals. SPX has just
been crawling through prev highs daily. Very close on the count, but no
signals yet.
-Dec 14 SPX 1203:38: No signals. Wait it out.
-Dec 13 SPX 1198.68: No signals. Waiting for
next tradable signal.
-Dec 10 SPX 1188.00: No signals.
-Dec 9 SPX 1189.24: No signals. Protect sales
in the event that the 20 point SPX break from the highs was all to be
had in the sell signal. Awaiting new signal.
-Dec 8 SPX 1182.81: No signals. Protect
previous sales.
-Dec 7 SPX 1177.07: No primary signal, though
volume is staying dynamic in the Nasdaq. Good sell off, protect sales.
-Dec 6 SPX 1190.25: No new signals. Protect
any sales.
-Dec 3 SPX 1191.17: Had good early
strength to sell.
Nasdaq had highest volume in 8 months (confirming sale there),
though
NYSE
volume settled down a bit. Still wanting to sell strength Monday
while
protecting sales appropriately.
-Dec 2 SPX
1190.33: Sell signal confirmed in
NYSE and Nasdaq. Sell strength!
-NOTE: The signal in
Nasdaq for Dec 1 was
"artificial". If I subtract out the 102 million shares of the QQQQ
which moved from the Amex to Nasdaq yesterday (Dec 1), it shows volume
data NOT giving a ND sell signal. Technically, it is only a matter of a
few million shares and a day in timing. I'll not have to be careful
about interpreting ND volume going forward since the signal is emphatic
on Dec 2. That said, the primary indicator (NYSE) did in fact give a
sell signal Dec 1, with the Nasdaq very close in both parameters (time
and volume).
-Dec 1 SPX
1191.37:
Sell signal in NYSE and
Nasdaq. First real signal (not counting lift off of
Nov 5)
since the buys back in mid-October. Sell strength.
-Nov 30 SPX 1173.82:
No new signals. Volume
staying pretty light as market continues modest give and take. Since
the lift off on Nov 5, signals have been lacking.
-Nov 29 SPX 1178.57: No new signals.
