MARKETLINE for
Tue Aug 24, 2010
©
1980-2010 STAN TAMULEVICH COPYRIGHT
EXPLAINED
NOTE: If you don't get an email
letter, bookmark this site and check it:
PART
1: Selected Ideas --Subject
to
revision.
Watch your mail. Enter all orders PRIOR TO THE
OPENINGS. DAY SESSION ORDERS ONLY.
ORDERS
FOR TODAY:
-Buy UNG , if done risk .23 under entry price.
-------
OPEN
POSITIONS:
-Long UNG
7.24, and 6.81. closed 6.86. Protect .23 under order for 2nd position
above. EXIT 7.44 if given opportunity. Seasonals are tougher to trade
and can be periodically perverse (like now). Will likely add on dips,
lighten on
spikes. Downside news
(i.e. the risk) is that cash nat gas markets are still up
stubstantially from the lows of last summer / fall. Current action not
constructive in view of seasonal elements here.
-------
CLOSED
POSITIONS PREVIOUS TRADING DAY:
-None
COMMENTS:
-STOCKS: The weight of the negativism and the poor reports out may
create a realization phase for the market right now, i.e. it can no
longer
ignore poor background. Just as stated in yesterday's letter: "Market
is not
without significant risks. Keep protection in
place." Market is subject to a shock at any time. The vast majority of
stock
charts look pretty poor. Nothing to grab you and say hey this is a
buy/sell point.
-BONDS:
Careful of all that bond bear talk. Commercials cautious/bearish, but
they can
stay bearish during up trends for some time.
-GOLD: See ref to Hulbert (link) below. That's probably about it in a
nutshell.
-CRUDE: Nothing seems to want to grab a trend here. If you try to make
a bull case, it comes up soft, dubious, and
iffy.
-DOLLAR: Holding well. Staying firm. More of same for perhaps 2-3
days yet.
-YEN: Still constructive. QE by the fed could keep trend higher vs
dollar.
NOTEWORTHY:
Hulbert:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-contrarian-take-on-gold-2010-08-18
PART
2: ULTIMATE
STOCK
MARKET
INDICATOR * (Previous
signals)
-Aug23:
SP500
= 1067.36. No signals. Data continues neutral.
-Aug20:
SP500
= 1071.69. No signals. All data neutral. Waiting for new signal to
trade.
-Aug19: SP500
= 1075.63. No signals. Neutral data. New low close without buy
confirmation has ominous overtones. We'll see what Friday brings and
wait for a tradeable signal. Last week's buy was only
marginally tradeable. Awaiting next trade signal.
-Aug18:
SP500 = 1094.16. No signals. Neutral
data. Very quiet option expiration week... or any week no matter how
you look at it, for that matter.
-Aug17:
SP500 = 1092.54. No signals. Data neutral / positive. Could get some
sort of downtick next.
-Aug16:
SP500 = 1079.38. No signals. Awaiting next signal. Last few quiet
days
could set up move either way with a signal eiher way. Protect positions
accordingly.
-Aug13:
SP500 = 1079.25. No signals. Data modestly constructive. Overall a
positive.
-Aug12:
SP500 = 1083.61. No new signals. Buy mode still in effect. Buy
weakness,
protect accordingly.
-Aug11:
SP500 = 1089.47. I read those two volume anomalies correctly
yesterday... as sell warnings. Now, here we go again. 3 of 5 sentiment
data sets are confirming a buy signal with ALL 4 primary indicators
doing so (some on 8, some on 10 day parameters....both good). BUY WEAKNESS.
-Aug
10:
SP500 = 1121.06. It's
time
to talk. We have gone into a period not unlike the spring of 2010.
Then, we were going into a top of significance. The key volume
expansions kept appearing near what were high short term periods then,
but they
were unusually appearing on down days. This Ult Stk Mkt Indicator
(USMI) has been very effective in calling EXHAUSTIONS in particular,
but the same anomaly is repeating. What I viewed as a buy as of the
close on Aug 6 is repeating as a mimic buy because once again, the
volume is coming at a trading top but on down days.
-WHAT'S IT MEAN? It
begs the question of whether this is really a sale or a buy.
Looking back at years of history, this is totally uncommon (or else I
am getting too analytical - grin). I made the
mistake of missing some key sales this spring, and am wondering if I am
again doing so RIGHT NOW. (the subsequent buys since spring righted the
picture
immensely)
-BOTTOM LINE: We'll work our way through this a day at a time. The
supporting volume indicators have given two signals in three days (a
certain BUY on Aug 6, and a dubious SELL today). The sentiment
overwhelming supported the buy interpretation of Aug 6. The sentiment
is now mixed.
-MY FEELING: The sentiment needs to confirm a sale as it did on the Aug
6 buy. Since it has not done so with the sell of today, the picture
indeed becomes mixed. My bias is to expect a bit of a higher move with
a true exhaustion to evolve and be confirmed (it's not a given
however). Until then, let me
emphasize that this is a very dangerous time frame. Play it accordingly
with appropriate protection. Also consider and give weight to the
reversing method for the S&P (part 3 below).
I sincerely hope this input helps. I'll have more to say with extra
detail as we go along, without over-analyzing or deviating from our
KISS (keep it simple stupid) principles of examining the market. If I
had to guess, I would say that an upside spike is more in the cards but
that does not guarantee anything. Offsetting this is that the failure
to
break lower right here increases the chance of a thrust higher.
-Aug 9:
SP500 = 1127.79.
Neutral data. No signals.
*This
service suggests
positioning in leveraged index ETFs, long or short. The symbols for the
2x long/short leveraged ETFs are: S&P500 = SSO / SDS, Nasdaq 100 =
QLD
/ QID, Russell 2000 = UWM / TWM. More leveraged alternatives are
available, as well as options positions and strategies, and futures
contracts.
PART
3: REVERSAL
SYSTEM
-Available
for purchase
here.
-Daily
updates for 3 markets below: SP500 (SP), Soybeans (S), and Coffee (KC).
-NOTE: You can use it as a system as presented below, or as key
entry/exit
points.
There are a variety of ways to use it, not necessarily or exclusively
as a reversing
system. These can be good entry / protection and target points for
positions as well.
More info here.
TO
PROPERLY VIEW TABLES AND COLUMNS, SET FONT TO A FIXED
WIDTH (Courier)
________________
___REVERSAL SYSTEM
DATA_________________________
----CURRENT POSITIONS----
: MON : TUE
: TUE
:
OPEN
CTR: L/S : DATE
& PRICE : CLOSE : REVERSAL :CONTINGENT
REV: $ P/L
SPU: SHORT
:08/19 @1078.20:
1070.30: 1076.70
stop: 1061.50 stop :+ 1975
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SX : SHORT :08/16 @1034.00: 1004.00: 1011.00 stop: 997.75 stop
:+ 1500
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
KCZ: LONG :08/10
@~173.60:_
185.05: 180.40 stop: 188.35 stop :+ 4294
NO
REVERSALS ON FRIDAY.
-If you find that data has NOT
been updated (it inadvertantly happens), email or call me at 608 239
4631 (cell) or 608 836 9229 so
that I can issue an immedite correction. -- Regretably there were
errors once again in yesterday's posted data.
-I use day session data
sets
and floor data
for both Soybeans and the
S&P to calculate reversal points. I also use the big contract for
the S&P.
The original system
was written using day session data and I think that is the key to
keeping this system working optimally. You can, and
should trade the more active contracts using the reversal points. It's
your
choice whether you want to use the evening sessions. I prefer NOT to do
so.
Notes:
-CONTINGENT REVERSAL should be placed same day to
REVERSE BACK AGAIN, but ONLY IF THE REVERSAL is executed, i.e. every
position always has its own
reversal
point at all times.
-FYI: It may be prudent to pull stops for 15-30 minutes during a
potential whipsaw report and replace them once the immediate volatility
dampens
down.
Adjust
trades
for
possible
slippage
(+/-),
discretion
&
commissions
ALL
RESULTS HYPOTHETICAL. MARKETLINE AND ITS
ORIGINATOR DO NOT CONTROL
OR TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR SUBSCRIBER ACCOUNTS. IDEAS OR
RECOMMENDATIONS REQUIRE USER DISCRETION. NO EPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE
THAT ANY
ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS. THERE IS RISK OF
SUBSTANTIAL LOSS IN
ALL
TRADING. TRADING THESE IDEAS IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. I
DO
NOT RECOMMEND THAT YOU BUY OR SELL
ANYTHING. USE MYCOMMENTARY OR IDEAS AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Enter all orders PRIOR TO THE
OPENING as DAY ORDERS for REGULAR FLOOR TRADING HOURS, UNLESS SPECIFIED
OTHERWISE. Use the most actively traded
platform where possible. Also be alert for occasional INTRADAY
updates. ALL RESULTS
HYPOTHETICAL. THIS SERVICE AND ITS ORIGINATOR DO NOT CONTROL OR TAKE
RESPONSIBILITY FOR SUBSCRIBER ACCOUNTS. IDEAS OR RECOMMENDATIONS
REQUIRE USER DISCRETION. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY
ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS. THERE IS RISK OF
SUBSTANTIAL LOSS IN FUTURES AND ALL TRADING. IT IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL
INVESTORS. I DO NOT RECOMMEND THAT YOU BUY OR SELL ANYTHING. USE
MY
COMMENTARY OR IDEAS AT YOUR OWN RISK. ALWAYS USE STOP PROTECTION.
NEVER RISK MORE THAN A SMALL PORTION OF YOUR ACCOUNT EQUITY. TRADE
CONSERVATIVELY. YOU ARE YOUR OWN BEST MONITOR OF YOUR PERSONAL
SITUATION. SMALL LOSSES CAN USUALLY BE TOLERATED. ALWAYS TRADE AND
PROTECT POSITIONS TO AVOID LOSSES THAT WOULD CAUSE FINANCIAL DISCOMFORT
OR UNACCEPTABLE ADVERSITY.
Marketline material is copyright
protected, proprietary and confidential under penalty of law. It may
not be copied, redistributed, transmitted or shared by the subscriber
in any way. Your subscription is provided with the strict
interpretation, under law, that all information and materials will be
used only by each individual paid subscriber and will be kept strictly
confidential. Any statement of facts are derived from sources believed
to be reliable, but are not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This
service assumes no responsibility or liability for any information,
statements or typographical errors, including, but not limited to, any
opinions, data or conclusions, late or blocked delivery, or late
posting of serivces. This service and/or employees may take
or have similar or dissimilar positions in suggested trades.
©
2010
STAN
TAMULEVICH, Copyright
explained
Marketline
Advisory Services (Home Page,
Links, Services)