001023-anwr An IN THEORY column for Sympatico By James Hrynyshyn HEADLINE: Joe vs the oil barons One group of Canadians are going to be paying more attention to the U.S. election that their own

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If I didn't know Joe Tetlichi was chairman of a wildlife management board, I'd never have pegged him for a political junkie.

Asked him for the best way to describe his qualifications, and he just says, "I've been living on the land for 20 years."

Neither would I have expected him to be too worried about the price of gasoline. There are no roads in his home town of Old Crow, a tiny place half-way between the Arctic Circle and Arctic Ocean. Gas for the ATVs and ski-doos has to be flown in, making it so expensive the recent price hikes are pretty much inconsequential.

But come Nov. 7, Tetlichi and just about everyone else in Old Crow will be glued to CNN, waiting for the results of the U.S. presidential election, and it's all because of those gas prices.

"We've been following the election very closely," say Tetlichi. "We're the ones who will be greatly affected."

In fact, the 300 people of Old Crow, almost all of them members of the Gwich'in First Nation, are probably better able to tell the difference between the two main candidates than are most Canadians.

Or Americans, for that matter.

Black gold
The critical issue is Democrat Al Gore has promised to maintain a prohibition on oil drilling in the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, a small piece of land just across the Alaskan border from Old Crow. Republican George W. Bush wants to open it up.

You might think that a "Wildlife Refuge" would preclude industrial development, but only 50 kilometres of ANWR's coastal plain are fully protected. The other 150 are open for petroleum exploration.

Turns out, the coastal plain not only lies on top of four billion barrels of hydrocarbons just waiting to make their contribution to the global warming, but it is also serves as the calving grounds of the Porcupine caribou herd.

It's not the land the caribou need, but the winds that blow off the Beaufort Sea and keep the down the mosquitos, which can make life impossible for a new-born calf. I've been to the western Arctic coast, and believe me, the mosquitos are nightmarish.

"We know that if there's development in there, it will affect the caribou," says Tetlichi.


On shaky ground
I suspect Tetlichi is right. But the science is shaky.

Studies of the only precedent, a massive drilling and refining installation in nearby Prudhoe Bay that shares the tundra with the Central Arctic caribou, are inconclusive

In theory, though, ANWR's coastal plain is more important to the Porcupine herd than is Prudhoe to the Central Arctic herd. And if anyone should be able to anticipate the effect, it would be the Gwich'in, who have hunted the Porcupine caribou for 10,000 years.

They even call themselves "the people of the caribou."

Those people of the caribou, have, thanks to repeated lobbies in Washington, twice managed to convince Bill Clinton to veto bills that included provisions to open up the plain to drilling.

OPEC's recent price hikes have given the proponents of drilling a new sense of urgency, however. They argue the U.S. needs the oil, and soon. (Never mind the reservoirs at issue hold only six months worth of U.S. consumption.)

One thing is certain: with world oil production expected to peak around 2012, the pressure to exploit untapped oil reserves is only going to increase.

The Gwich'in hope someone protects the ANWR plain long before that.

Clinton could declare the entire refuge a national monument before he leaves office in January. It's a sneaky way to protect important ecosystems without the hassle of the democratic debate required for park designation, and it annoys the hell out of the industrialists, but it is legal.

But if he doesn't, it will be up to the next President.

Tetlichi is betting on Gore. "We're not thinking, what happens if Bush wins? We're thinking, when Gore wins we're going to have a big party," he says.

There are about 129,000 caribou in the Porcupine herd, which sounds like a lot. But a decade ago that number was closer to 180,000. Increased snowfall, which makes it harder for the caribou to eat or reach their calving grounds before females give birth, is to blame.

It could be climate change. It could be a natural cycle. Either way, oil rigs in a pristine arctic environment rubs me the wrong way. Plus, it could mean the end of both the caribou and the Gwich'in culture.

I, for one, can't think of a compromise on this one. Any suggestions?

Related sites: A map of the region, including the ANWR coastal plain
The oil companies' point of view
The Alaskan Gwich'in point of view
Canada's Gwichin Tribal Council