ult-current

THE LATEST SIGNAL DAILY DATA:
(Keep paging down, lots of good stuff that follows)

-May 8: SP500 = 1397.68. No new signals. Potentially ugly break might be forthcoming.
-May 7: SP500 = 1392.57. No new signals. Continue to protect all sales made into strength since Apr 18.
-May 6: SP500 = 1418.26. No new signals.
-May 5: SP500 = 1407.49. Awaiting next signal.

-May 2: SP500 = 1413.90. No new signal, though VIX pattern again suggests selling strength. New found bullish optimism is spreading. Disappointments often follow unrestrained enthusiasm. Protect all positions and await additional signals.
-May 1: SP500 = 1409.34. Nasdaq indicating sell along with some other overbought indications in my database. It remains to be seen what type of a bottom (minor, intermediate, major) has been experienced over the past few weeks. Await primary parameter trading signal. Indicator bias today continues to indicate that one should sell strength.
-Apr 30: SP500 = 1385.59. No signals. Protect positions.
-Apr 29: SP500 = 1390.94. No signals, though short term data is pretty neutral. Protect positions. One should not rule out anything happening at this point in time.
-Apr 28: SP500 = 1396.37. No signals.

-Apr 25: SP500 = 1397.84. No new signals. Protect any / all sales.
-Apr 24: SP500 = 1388.82. Sell strength. Nasdaq, QQQQ, and SPY data indicating another sell signal.
-Apr 23: SP500 = 1379.93. No new signals.
-Apr 22: SP500 = 1375.94. No signals. Suspiciously bad acting market. Low P/C ratio for five days now. Not a bullish indication. Friday sell signal may have been key signal after the three buy signals in March. Time will tell. As always, protect any sales (shorts) and await next signal.
-Apr 21: SP500 = 1388.17. Limited opportunitiy to sell strength today. No new signals for Tuesday.

-Apr 18: SP500 = 1390.33. Sell signals from the NYSE and Nasdaq volume parameters as well as P/C ratio. Elect to sell into strength.
-Apr 17: SP500 = 1365.56. No signals. Data pulled back from signal generation. Wait for signal. Protect accumulated longs appropriately.
-Apr 16: SP500 = 1364.71. No signals from SPY or Q's. NYSE did generate a sell. Data tipping toward selling strength again.
-Apr 15: SP500 = 1334.43. No signals. Data neutral. Await next tradable signal.
-Apr 14: SP500 = 1328.32. No signals. Some sort of a bounce should be expected here.

-Apr 11: SP500 = 1332.83. No signals. Normal reaction exceeded. As always, protect any and all positions appropriately.
-Apr 10: SP500 = 1360.55. No signals. Await high probability entries.
-Apr 9: SP500 = 1354.53. No signals as normal pullback continues.
-Apr 8: SP500 = 1365.59. No signals.
-Apr 7: SP500 = 1372.54. No signals.

*For signals, this service suggests positioning in leveraged index ETFs, long or short. The symbols for the long/short leveraged ETFs are: S&P500 = SSO / SDS, Nasdaq 100 = QLD / QID, Russell 2000 = UWM / TWM. More leveraged alternatives are to trade the Nasdaq 100 and S&P500 futures contracts.

SIGNAL DAYS ONLY POSTED BELOW:

ULTIMATE TRADING SIGNALS (Sept 7, 2007 - THRU 2008):
-May 1: SP500 = 1409.34. Nasdaq indicating sell along with some other overbought indications in my database. It remains to be seen what type of a bottom (minor, intermediate, major) has been experienced over the past few weeks. Await primary parameter trading signal. Indicator bias today continues to indicate that one should sell strength.
-Apr 24: SP500 = 1388.82. Sell strength. Nasdaq, QQQQ, and SPY data indicating another sell signal.
-Apr 18: SP500 = 1390.33. Sell signals from general NYSE and Nasdaq volume parameters as well as P/C ratio. Elect to sell into strength.
-Mar 17: SP500 = 1276.60. Buy signal from primary indicator. Buy weakness in the indexes. Protect all positions appropriately.
-Mar 4: SP500 = 1326.75. Buy signal confirmed, buy weakness. Not capitulation, but set up for possible rally.-Feb 29: SP500 = 1330.63. Not capitulation, but a buy signal. Buy weakness.
-Feb 26: SP500 = 1381.29. By the slimmest of margins, the primary indicator has generated a sell signal. Not broadly confirmed elsewhere, but for the record, we'll elect to sell strength.
-Jan 22: SP500 = 1310.50. Indicator remains in a buy mode (note subsequent rally to 1396 into Feb 1)
-Jan 18: SP500 = 1325.19. Buy signal.
-Jan 17: SP500 = 1333.25. Buy signal, buy weakness.
-Jan 16: SP500 = 1373.20. Buy signal, buy weakness.
-Jan 8: SP500 = 1390.19. Buy weakness.
-Jan 4: SP500 = 1411.63. Buy signal basis my original 7 day parameter for this indicator. The 10 day confirmation is not present, though other data sets are indicating a buy. Buy weakness / protect any purchases.
-Dec 21: SP500 = 1484.46. Sell signal, sell strength
-Nov 8: SP500 = 1474.44. Buy signal. Buy weakness. Protection of all positions. It's essential to any trading plan.
-Oct 19: SP500 = 1500.63. Buy signal using the NYSE parameter. Buy weakness. (nice interim tradable rally ensued to above 1550)
-Oct 11: SP500 = 1554.41. Not an uptick, but volume expansion gave a sell signal. Sell strength.
-Sep 21: SP500 = 1525.75. Sell signal confirmed. Sell strength.
-Sep 19: SP500 = 1529.03. Had nice opportunity to sell strength. Another sell signal today, sell strength.
-Sep 18: SP500 = 1519.78. Sell signal, sell strength.
-Sep 7: SP500 = 1453.55. Sharp down day. Buy signal, buy weakness.

Some comments from buyers:
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THE ULTIMATE STOCK MARKET INDICATOR FOR INDEX TRADERS
Daily Comments and Signals and commentary from April 2, 2004 - March 11, 2005

While all references below and data pertain to the "version 2" of this indicator, as of October 2005, I have added signals generated by a statistical measure (version 3) that produces more within trend signals. Those signals are described in the paper that is available for sale, as well as being carried free in the Marketline Daily Advisory Letter. It is a great addition to the existing indicator. April-Sept 2005 signals are shown on the image below:

2005 DATA BELOW:
-Mar 11 SPX 1200.09: No signals.
-Mar 10 SPX 1209.25: No signals.
-Mar 9 SPX 1207.01: No signals. Frustrating in that every time the market gets to a point where a sell signal seems immanent, it just gently pulls back down without generating a signal. Patience required. Unknown when or what kind of signal will be forthcoming.
-Mar 8 SPX 1219.43: No signals, though market appears to have backed off of a technical sell zone, it is giving no clues as to signaling a turning point or a blow off.
-Mar 7 SPX 1225.31: No signals. At this point it appears we are waiting for the right opportunity to sell strength.

-Mar 4 SPX 1222.12: No signals. The beat goes on until we "max out" on the greed/short covering combo. Volume will be the clue.
-Mar 3 SPX 1210.47: No signals as market churns in place.
-Mar 2 SPX 1210.08: No signals in the face of a volatile day.
-Mar 1 SPX 1210.41: No signals. The preferred signal would be to get a sell on strength, rather than weakness as yesterday. Wait another day to see what transpires. I am still being alert to being a potential seller.
-Feb 28 SPX 1203.60: Volume signal in NYSE and Nasdaq with option stat's confirming sell as a contrarian indicator. I like to see climax type action, but Monday seemed more like a volume reversal than anything else, i.e. an early rally failed badly. I am uncertain we have seen the highs thought the evidence keeps saying the sell side should be favored. I'd be looking to sell strength. One down day does not generate a buy signal.

-Feb 25 SPX 1211.37: No signals. The Fed 22 buy spawned a rally, but gave no weakness to take long positions. Awaiting next signal.
-Feb 24 SPX 1200.20: No signals. Market now clearly in the middle of a congestion (sideways pattern), which by definition, can not generate a signal.
-Feb 23 SPX 1190.80: No weakness to buy on the 23rd. No signals indicated. Back in congestion looking for another signal.
-Feb 22 SPX 1184.16: Primary indicator has given a buy signal along with some minor technical confirmations. Buy weakness. SPX has closed at lowest level in 14 trading days (the NDX in 16 days).
-Feb 21 Market Holiday

-Feb 18 SPX 1201.59: No signals.
-Feb 17 SPX 1200.75: No signals.
-Feb 16 SPX 1210.34: No signals. Due for a breather, but index systems still on the long side.
-Feb 15 SPX 1210.12: No signals, since Jan 20 buy signal. Be patient.
-Feb 14 SPX 1206.14: No signals...getting to sound like a broken record, but market continues to work higher and it appears to need more time.

-Feb 11 SPX 1205.30: No signals in primary market/indicator yet. Nasdaq signal from yesterday certainly followed through as a buy signal should. The NDX cash index trade up 36.86 from it's low tick today...a nice gain. An anomaly is that the volume once again expanded as the NDX moved nearly back to the high of the last 3 1/2 weeks. Sort of a mirror image sell from yesterday's buy. We'll continue to look for a primary market signal to hang our hat on.
-Feb 10 SPX 1197.01: No primary market signal. Nasdaq signaled but by a miniscule increment while at the bottom of a nine day range which would read more like a buy signal. Again market continues to confirm that buy signal (from Jan 20) was a good one and that more upside in the SPX would not be out of the question.
-Feb 9 SPX 1191.99: No signals in spite of selloff.
-Feb 8 SPX 1202.30: No signals.
-Feb 7 SPX 1201.72: No signals.

-Feb 4 SPX 1203.03: No signals.
-Feb 3 SPX 1189.89: No signals. Can't say how this is going to be resolved, but let's hope it's clear and resounding.
-Feb 2 SPX 1193.19: No signals.
-Feb 1 SPX 1189.41: No signals. That buy of Jan 20 may carry this market for a while yet. It's dynamic, speculative, but without a volume blowoff. Patience....we may end up slipping back to the sell side very soon.
-Jan 31 SPX 1181.27: No signals.

-Jan 28 SPX 1171.36: No signals.
-Jan 27 SPX 1174.85: No signals.
-Jan 26 SPX 1174.07: No signals. Tighten up stops on any longs.
-Jan 25 SPX 1168.41: No signals. Modest up move could be answer to weak buy signal given Jan 20. Await definitive signals.
-Jan 24 SPX 1163.75: No signals. Stay cautions. If you bought anything, don't become a buy and hold investor, protect positions.

-Jan 21 SPX 1167.87: Had modest weakness late, but no significant selling pressure. Protect any longs. No new signals. Refer to comments from the 20th.
-Jan 20 SPX 1175.41: Primary market buy signal. Could be early or one of a series. Not an extreme condition or signal. Buy weakness.
-Jan 19 SPX 1184.63: No signals. Looking lower.
-Jan 18 SPX 1195.98: No signals. Wait it out.
-Jan 17 ---Market Holiday

-Jan 14 SPX 1184.52: No signals. Pre-holiday trading usually precludes signals due to light volume.
-Jan 13 SPX 1177.45: No signals. The Dec 16 sell signal still looks good after the confirming high volume off the top starting the first of this year.
-Jan 12 SPX 1187.70: No signals.
-Jan 11 SPX 1182.99: No signals yet as market inches back down that proverbial wall of worry.
-Jan 10 SPX 1190.25: No signals. Waiting for next signal.

-Jan 7 SPX 1186.19: No signals.
-Jan 6 SPX 1187.89: No signals. Hard to tell if a possible rally will have legs here, but the sentiment indictors are still too optimistic to convince me that we'll make much upside progress on a rally.
-Jan 5 SPX 1183.74: No signals today. I would opt to let this volume bulge to the downside play into the NEXT signal. For reasons that the decline started down days with volume from a high level, it acts like the start of a move, not the end of one. Bias is downside, volatility likely to pick up furher.We really need an exhaustion of downside pressure to call a turn. This is likely the start of an intermediate move. It may take a while to complete this leg, though very short term, the drop is extended a bit. That does not rule out an extreme conclusion (exhaustion) that may take a considerable time in coming. The SPX did not make it to 1180. Still best to be flat or short at this juncture, even though a bounce is due. Overall, it certainly seems too soon to buy. I doubt this wave of selling is over, but as always, take it a day at a time.
-Jan 4 SPX 1188.05: Sharp selloff of the last two days have put the volume parameter in a buy mode. As a short term strategy, buy weakness, but pick your spots carefullly (about 8 SPX points lower might be a good area) and protect positions.
-Jan 3 SPX 1202.08: No primary signal. Nasdaq DIA, and SPY gave secondary 10 day volume peaks off of a rally high. This indicator is tuned to look for exhaustion which the reversal may represent. Admittedly the DIA volume expansion comes off of several soft days of decline and could set up a bounce. We'll stay with our sell signal from Dec 16 until something clearly defines the technicals. Until then, we could continue to see choppy action pending a countermove or confirming signal.

2004 DATA BELOW:
-Dec 31 SPX 1211.92: No signals.
-Dec 30 SPX 1213.55: No signals, none likely tomorrow either in pre-holiday session.
-Dec 29 SPX 1213.45: No signals. Waiting for next tradable signal which will likely follow the holiday doldrums.
-Dec 28 SPX 1213.54: No signals as volume remains low and speculation high.
-Dec 27: SPX 1204.92: No signals. There has been minimal upside progress since sell signal given Dec 16.

-Dec 24: Christmas Holiday
-Dec 23 SPX 1210.13: No signals. Quiet pre-holiday trading day.
-Dec 22 SPX 1209.57: Thus far sales made on Dec 17 only resulted in a two day pullback. Protect positions while waiting for next trading signal. None yet as pre-holiday volume contracts.
-Dec 21 SPX 1205.45: No signals, no volume spikes, just a continuation of diminished volume upside. Await next signal, protect previous sales.
-Dec 20 SPX 1194.65: No signals. Nothing clear cut as market pulls back modestly from recent gains and sell signal of Dec 16. Protect sales.

-Dec 17 SPX 1194.22: Had a nice bit of early strength to sell, but only in ND. Protect any sales. Sell signal right on the money for the moment.
-Dec 16 SPX 1203.21: Sell signal. Highest NYSE vol since Oct 27. Sell strength.
-Dec 15 SPX 1205.72: No signals. SPX has just been crawling through prev highs daily. Very close on the count, but no signals yet.
-Dec 14 SPX 1203:38: No signals. Wait it out.
-Dec 13 SPX 1198.68: No signals. Waiting for next tradable signal.

-Dec 10 SPX 1188.00: No signals.
-Dec 9 SPX 1189.24: No signals. Protect sales in the event that the 20 point SPX break from the highs was all to be had in the sell signal. Awaiting new signal.
-Dec 8 SPX 1182.81: No signals. Protect previous sales.
-Dec 7 SPX 1177.07: No primary signal, though volume is staying dynamic in the Nasdaq. Good sell off, protect sales.
-Dec 6 SPX 1190.25: No new signals. Protect any sales.

-Dec 3 SPX 1191.17: Had good early strength to sell. Nasdaq had highest volume in 8 months (confirming sale there), though NYSE volume settled down a bit. Still wanting to sell strength Monday while protecting sales appropriately.
-Dec 2 SPX 1190.33: Sell signal confirmed in NYSE and Nasdaq. Sell strength!
-NOTE: The signal in Nasdaq for Dec 1 was "artificial". If I subtract out the 102 million shares of the QQQQ which moved from the Amex to Nasdaq yesterday (Dec 1), it shows volume data NOT giving a ND sell signal. Technically, it is only a matter of a few million shares and a day in timing. I'll not have to be careful about interpreting ND volume going forward since the signal is emphatic on Dec 2. That said, the primary indicator (NYSE) did in fact give a sell signal Dec 1, with the Nasdaq very close in both parameters (time and volume).
-Dec 1 SPX 1191.37: Sell signal in NYSE and Nasdaq. First real signal (not counting lift off of Nov 5) since the buys back in mid-October. Sell strength.
-Nov 30 SPX 1173.82: No new signals. Volume staying pretty light as market continues modest give and take. Since the lift off on Nov 5, signals have been lacking.

-Nov 29 SPX 1178.57: No new signals.